How Projected Range Works

The vertical tick marks the team's current score. The band extends left toward better scores and right toward worse — often asymmetric, since bench players can only improve the score, never hurt it.

Range width is driven by all active players, not just the three counting. Each player's contribution scales with their total remaining holes. Volatile players () widen the range; consistent players () tighten it. Volatility is a 50/50 blend of round-by-round scoring variance per player across 38 elevated PGA Tour events over the past two years, and their variance so far this week.

Bench asymmetry — any bench player within striking distance of the P3 spot extends the left (better) side only. Both volatile and consistent bench players are factored in; the effect scales with proximity to the count line and holes remaining.

Course calibration — the floor is anchored to the current leader's live scoring pace, preventing the model from projecting scores the course itself won't allow.